The XR Blueprint: Where we are headed

I’ve posted fairly extensively before about the rough equivalency of our modern iPhones vs. the worlds fastest supercomputers in Y2K. That in itself is amazing.

There are several key trends at work that make that possible:

Moore’s Law
- the eternal(?) Truth of Tech — that every 18 months, processor power doubles.
AI Designs Silicon
- In parallel / driving that, is the full automation / AI direction of modern chip design (more here)
Everything gets Smaller
- Perhaps of equal importance is the constant trend of miniaturization…
- …the fact that whatever amount of compute fitted into a datacenter 20 years ago, will fit into your pocket today. Note that that is not only a factor of physical shrinkage, but also massive leaps in energy efficiency… as the typical datacenter draws 10-30 megawatts per hour, while your smartphone runs on significantly less than 1/100th of 1% of that electrical power draw, iall from a low-heat battery no less.
Batteries get Better (and Better)
- And thus, fourth is the — utterly critical — enhancement of battery technology — both in terms of compactness (energy per gram), as well as efficiency (storage vs. size vs. heat vs. longevity vs. rechargeability).

What I’d like to talk about now is the final destination(s) of all these four trends combined, and the roadmap we will walk along in order to achieve that lofty goal.

[ROUGH DRAFT v0.2]

Put simply, this is the roadmap:

datacenter
laptop
smartphone
e-glasses
e-contact lenses
neural implants

The amazing thing is, that as of today — 2025 — every single one of these technologies is not only in the lab, but actually being used by (and in!) humans.

What’s even stranger is that, even once the neural implants are utterly perfected, there will still be a use and need for massive, power-hungry datacenters. The “AI masterminds” that converse with, inform, learn from, and power the “edge devices.”

Let’s talk about the near-term first: e-Glasses.

This is the essential “next step” beyond the smartphone. Yes, there have been / continue to be fantasies about watches, pins, and rings… and certainly, those will all come to pass. But the ability to give your AI (computer) the same perspective as you — visually and auditorially — as in, to center its sensor array in the same general location as your own biological sensors — eyes and ears — is priceless.

So while it is indeed certain that smartphone functionality (supercompute, cloud connectivity, GPS, camera, etc) will migrate to both the wrist (watch) and finger (ring), the final destination is the face. Thus : “face computers”.

Meta, somewhat surprisingly (and somewhat not, given both the acquisition of Oculus, the presence of ____, and the bold ambition of Zuck), is by far the leader in this space. As Zuck continues to bet >$8 billion a year of profitless R&D into Oculus / VR / Quest headsets & software, they ride on top of the (?surprising?) success of their partnership with RayBan in the interim.

Because in their genius, they have recognized a singular truth:

Consumers will absolutely reject any “face computer” technology that is not as comfortable and “18 hours a day” wearable as… (“as what?”)… as…

How much do sunglasses weigh?

Do you know how much your sunglasses weigh? Probably not. So here are some quick heuristics:

Designer / Fashion : up to 160 grams (100g)
Typical Oakley / Rayban / gas station / beach shop: 50g
Ray Ban Aviators: 31g

those are kind of abstract figures, i know. So let’s compare them to the current SotA (State-of-the-Art) embodiment of mini-tech: smartphones.

How much does a modern smartphone weigh?

iPhone 16 Pro: 199g
Google Pixel 9 Pro: also, 199g
. . . . (coincidence? I think not…)

one of my all-time favorite smartphones, btw, is…

iPhone 13 mini (2021): a svelte 140g

How much does the Apple Vision Pro weigh?

this is, basically, the only current platform that has all the necessary tech embedded within it (minus, actually, the all-critical battery!). So…

How much do high-end designer sunglasses weigh?

a pair of…

D&G (Dolce & Gabbana) DG 4399: 190g
Prada PR 01OS: 150g
more typical high-fashion sunglasses reside in the 40-100g range

And, now, for the winner…

How much does a pair of Ray-Ban Meta Wayfarer Smart Glasses weigh?

Ray-Ban Meta Wayfarer: 49g

However…

those Ray-Bans only have input… not output (the critical missing piece: holographic projectors)

How much does a pair of Meta Orion XR Glasses weigh?

And here comes the miracle (and you can feel it, it was written in stone by God [Zuck]… “though shalt not make any glasses weighing more than 99 grams…”

Meta Project Orion: 98g

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